The argument against taking a quarterback in the 2022 NFL draft

You will hear this phrase many times over the course of the 2022 NFL draft season.

“This is not a great quarterback class.”

Although the 2022 class of signal-callers does not include a sure-fire №1 overall pick, such as Kyler Murray in 2019, Joe Burrow in 2020 or Trevor Lawrence in 2021, there are many quarterbacks who may go in the middle-to-late of the first round who have high upside.

Should teams take the risk of taking a quarterback with a high pick in the draft? Ironically, in a “not great quarterback class,” more teams are in need of a quarterback now than ever before.

The Panthers, Football Team, Broncos and Steelers will almost undoubtedly need a new quarterback for the 2022 season, and the Giants, Falcons and Lions will most likely need a new quarterback at some point in the future.

These seven teams may look for a new quarterback in late April, and more teams may join the fray. In spite of the risk, a few teams may choose to select a quarterback regardless. However, I believe there are five reasons why these teams should not use a first or second round pick on a quarterback in the 2022 NFL draft.

Risk

The draft is an uncertain, almost lucky process. Every player in their early 20s who enters the draft is a risk for NFL teams. Quarterback is the most precarious of them all.

A quarterback is the most important position in football. Teams who have talent at the other 21 positions may still not be successful without a top-of-the-line quarterback. The San Francisco 49ers reached the Super Bowl in the 2020 season, and held a double-digit lead heading into the fourth quarter.

Fifteen minutes of gametime later, the NFC champions were headed home without a ring. Fourteen months later, the 49ers selected a quarterback to replace Jimmy Garrapolo, the man who took them to the big game a year prior.

Without an elite quarterback, San Francisco failed to win the Super Bowl, and thus drafted Trey Lance in the 2021 NFL draft, a quarterback with out-of-the-gym athleticism who the franchise hopes will take them back to the Super Bowl, and give the team another ring.

What happens if Lance does not work out as originally perceived? What if Lance is a bust? Likely, the 49ers will have to restart and look for another quarterback. But it takes years to develop a quarterback, and their stars will have aged or become too expensive to retain.

This is the risk every team faces when looking for a new quarterback. If the signal-caller, the most important player to a franchise, fails, then the team may be reset years, and be forced to enter another rebuild.

Teams will take quarterbacks regardless of the risk, it comes with the fickle nature of the draft. Quarterbacks with high upside, such as Matt Corral and Malik Willis will be taken with high picks in the draft, in order to give a new hope to a struggling franchise. If they are to fail, it could set a team back, and leave coaches and general managers without a job.

A quarterback taken high in the draft is more probable to fail than you may believe. From 2000 to 2020, 60 quarterbacks were selected in the first round, and just over 42% have had successful careers according to Pro-Football-Reference weighted career approximate value.

Since 2016, the number of successful quarterbacks is an even smaller number. Just 35% of quarterbacks selected in the first round in the past five years have a top-12 season among all quarterbacks.

The odds of a quarterback selected in the second round are even smaller, as quarterbacks selected since 2000 in the second round have a 86% chance to be a bust.

There are exceptions to all of these odds. Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes won a league MVP award in their respective second seasons at the helm of their offense, and Russell Wilson has won a super bowl and is on the path to become a first ballot Hall of Famer after being selected in the third round.

For as many quarterbacks who have hit, there are more who have been busts. With the odds of taking a successful quarterback in the draft are less than 50%, should teams take the risk in a “not great quarterback class.”

Cap space

NFL players are being paid more than ever before, and quarterbacks are receiving the biggest paychecks. Patrick Mahomes signed a half a billion dollar contract before he turned 26 years old. NFL teams are not allowed to spend as much money as they wish, there is a cap space to impose spending limits.

Rookie quarterbacks are receiving more guaranteed money than most NFL veterans. First overall pick Trevor Lawrence received over $36 million with $24 million fully guaranteed before he took a snap before the Jaguars.

Teams who may be looking to replace expensive veterans such as the Falcons with Matt Ryan or the Lions with Jared Goff should not do so now, as they would be forced to pay a rookie quarterback as well as their current quarterback. The money spent on two players would force the franchise to spend less on every other position. With less money, comes less opportunity to sign big-name free agents and fill the roster with more talent.

Instead of taking a quarterback in 2022, these teams should look elsewhere such as in later draft classes.

2023

On the contrary of how the 2022 class is perceived, the 2023 quarterback class is star-studded. Alabama’s Bryce Young won the Heisman trophy as a sophomore, and will be able to enter the 2023 draft, becoming the probable №1 overall pick. Similarly, CJ Stroud was a Heisman finalist as a redshirt freshman, and will have the opportunity to enter the 2023 NFL draft after his redshirt sophomore season.

Teams may look at the 2023 NFL draft as an opportunity to select quarterbacks with more successful collegiate careers, and by then will have enough money after getting expensive contracts off the books.

In the meantime, teams may elect to use a bridge-quarterback while waiting for their young quarterback of the future.

Other options

A bridge-quarterback is an older veteran, who does not cost a great deal of money compared to the elite quarterbacks. Teams could use a bridge-quarterback so their offense does not have to be in ruins while the franchise waits for a long-term solution.

There is another, unlikely and alternative option for teams with plentiful draft capital — Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson.

One, or both of these top quarterbacks in the NFL could be on the trade block after the 2021 season. Teams who are ready to compete now may trade away a number of top draft picks in order to get an elite quarterback without having to draft and develop a young thrower.

Other needs

The Giants took the risk in the 2019 NFL draft, selecting Daniel Jones with the sixth overall pick. Jones in his first three years has thus been lackluster, which may lead the Giants looking elsewhere for the leader of their franchise. Now, the Giants are stuck with a below-average quarterback, with many other needs across the roster.

Ben Roethlisberger’s time in Pittsburgh appears to be coming to an end. After 17 years leading the Steelers to two Super Bowls, Pittsburgh will be looking for a new franchise leader for the first time in almost two decades.

Instead of taking the risk, the Giants and Steelers may look to fix other positions of need, so when the franchise eventually finds their new quarterback, the young signal-caller will have tools to succeed immediately.

Although I personally believe in the quarterbacks of the 2022 class, such as the aforementioned Malik Willis and Matt Corral, there is discussion and an argument to be had for teams in need of the most important position. Instead, teams could opt for a different option instead of the expensive risk of selecting a quarterback in the 2022 NFL draft.